A Texas-Sized Primary War Over Cash and Influence

As early voting begins today, Tuesday, February 17, 2026, the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate has shifted from a policy debate into an aggressive “war of words” regarding campaign finances and outside influence. Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) has officially gone on the offensive, alleging that a “coastal elite” coordinated effort is being used to starve her campaign of the funds needed to compete with State Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin).

The stakes are high: the winner will likely face either incumbent John Cornyn or Attorney General Ken Paxton in a general election that early polling suggests is closer than any Texas statewide race in decades.

The Fundraising Gap: $20 Million vs. $6.5 Million

While Crockett frames the financial disparity as an “orchestrated choke-off,” the raw numbers show Talarico has built a massive small-dollar machine that currently dominates the airwaves.

• Talarico’s Surge: In the first six weeks of 2026 alone, Talarico raised $7.4 million, bringing his total cycle haul to over $20 million. His campaign claims over 500,000 individual donations, with 98% under $100.
• Crockett’s Position: Crockett reported $6.5 million in the final quarter of 2025, but roughly $4.5 million of that was a transfer from her existing House account. She has not released new figures for 2026, fueling speculation about her liquidity.
• Advertising Disparity: Talarico and his allies (including the Lone Star Rising PAC) have spent over $12.7 million on ads. Crockett, by contrast, has spent roughly $1.4 million, including a high-profile “anime-style” Super Bowl ad that sparked debate over the use of AI-generated crowds.

The “Coastal Influence” Controversy

The friction intensified after Crockett singled out New York-based podcasters Bowen Yang and Matt Rogers (Las Culturistas) for telling their audience that donating to her was a “waste.” Crockett has characterized these remarks as part of a “peddled narrative” from New York and D.C. operatives to influence a Texas election.

“Who spends a million dollars and didn’t even go after the people that are running against him?” — Jasmine Crockett, referring to GOP Gov. Greg Abbott’s $1M ad buy targeting her rather than Talarico.

Polls: A “Dead Heat” or a Crockett Lead?

Polling remains contradictory as voters head to the booths, reflecting a deep divide in the Democratic base.

Demographic Split:

• Black Voters: Crockett holds a commanding lead, with nearly 60% support in recent surveys.
• Latino Voters: A major battleground; Talarico recently secured the endorsement of the state’s largest Hispanic Democratic organization, but the University of Houston poll showed Crockett leading this group 46% to 37%.
• White Voters/Advanced Degrees: Talarico maintains a steady edge with these groups, particularly in the Austin and Houston suburbs.

The “Abbott Factor”

Crockett’s most potent argument for her electability is that Governor Greg Abbott has already spent $1 million on attack ads against her. Her campaign argues that the GOP is ignoring Talarico because they view her “combative, urban-focused” style as the true threat to their statewide dominance.