By Trendsetter Tribune 
As of February 9, 2026, the Texas Senate race is entering its final sprint before the March 3 primary. Recent polling indicates a highly fluid environment in both parties, with U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett reclaiming momentum in the Democratic field and a fierce three-way battle on the Republican side that likely guarantees a runoff.
The Democratic Primary: Crockett vs. Talarico
While state Representative James Talarico held a 9-point lead in early January polls, the latest survey from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs (conducted Jan 20–31) shows Crockett has surged ahead.
| Candidate | Support % (U. of Houston) | Net Favorability | Key Demographic Base |
| Jasmine Crockett | 47% | +76 (84% Fav) | Black voters (80%), Women, Urban areas |
| James Talarico | 39% | +73 (79% Fav) | Hispanic & White voters, Men, Suburban areas |
| Undecided | 12% | N/A | TPOR poll shows 21% undecided |
The primary has become increasingly racially and rhetorically charged. Talarico has leaned into an “electability” argument, emphasizing his record of winning red districts. However, his campaign was recently jolted by allegations—which he called a “mischaracterization”—that he referred to former Rep. Colin Allred as a “mediocre Black man” in private. Crockett, meanwhile, has leaned into her identity as a “street fighter,” arguing that an “unprecedented candidate” is needed to flip Texas in a post-2024 landscape.
The Republican Primary: The “Paxton vs. Cornyn” Civil War
The GOP primary has devolved into a battle for the “MAGA” mantle between incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. The entry of U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt has further split the vote, making a May 26 runoff almost certain.
- Ken Paxton (38%): Leading among “Trump Movement” voters and those who prioritize border security.
- John Cornyn (31%): Retains support from “Traditional Republicans” and has a massive fundraising advantage, but faces “establishment” labels.
- Wesley Hunt (17%): Positioning himself as the “America First” alternative to the 73-year-old Cornyn, attacking the Senator’s age and tenure.
General Election Scenarios
Despite Democratic enthusiasm, early general election polling shows a state that remains “Lean/Likely Republican.” The University of Houston poll tested several scenarios for November:
- Paxton vs. Crockett: Paxton +2 (45% to 43%)
- Cornyn vs. Talarico: Cornyn +1 (44% to 43%)
- Hunt vs. Crockett: Hunt +3 (46% to 43%)
Key Dates to Watch
- February 17, 2026: Early voting begins.
- March 3, 2026: Primary Election Day. (Candidates need 50% to avoid a runoff).
- May 26, 2026: Primary Runoff (if necessary).
- November 3, 2026: General Election.