By Trendsetter Tribune 
AUSTIN — With the Texas primaries just ten days away, a new wave of polling suggests that a potential general election matchup between Democratic U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton could be the most competitive statewide race in decades. According to data released by the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs on February 9, 2026, the two candidates are locked in a statistical dead heat.
While Paxton currently holds a slight numerical lead, the difference is well within the poll’s margin of error, giving credence to the idea that Crockett could pull off an upset in November.
The Hypothetical Matchup
The survey tested a head-to-head battle for the Senate seat currently held by incumbent John Cornyn, who is himself fighting for survival in a three-way Republican primary.
| Candidate | Support | Status |
| Ken Paxton (R) | 45% | Leading primary by 7 points. |
| Jasmine Crockett (D) | 43% | Leading primary by 8 points. |
| Undecided/Other | 12% | Includes 8% unsure and 4% Libertarian. |
Note: With a margin of error of ±4.18%, a 2-point gap represents a technical tie.
Crockett’s Path to Victory
The poll highlights a significant shift in the Democratic primary, where Crockett has recently surged ahead of State Rep. James Talarico (47% to 39%). Her strength in a general election relies on three key factors:
- High Name Recognition: Crockett’s “viral” presence in congressional hearings has given her a national profile that rivals established statewide incumbents.
- Base Mobilization: She leads Talarico among Black voters by 58 points and has gained a narrow edge among Latino women (49% to 29%).
- The “Unfavorability” Factor: While Paxton has a loyal base, he also carries a high unfavorability rating (48%) among general election voters, stemming from his 2023 impeachment and various legal battles. In contrast, Crockett’s unfavorability sits at 37%.
Paxton’s Republican Resilience
Despite the close general election numbers, Paxton remains the favorite to win the GOP nomination. He currently leads incumbent John Cornyn (38% to 31%) and is expected to dominate in a potential May runoff. His supporters cite his aggressive legal challenges to federal policies as proof of his “MAGA” credentials.
The “Colbert” Variable
The race took a surreal turn this week following reports that Stephen Colbert’s interview with Crockett’s opponent, James Talarico, was pulled from the air due to concerns from CBS lawyers regarding federal regulators.
- The Talarico Boost: Talarico’s campaign reportedly raised $2.5 million in 24 hours following the incident.
- The Crockett Response: Crockett acknowledged that the controversy provided her opponent a “boost,” but maintained that her “federal experience” is what voters crave in a senator.
The Bottom Line
Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1993. However, with the Republican party split between the “old guard” (Cornyn) and “culture warriors” (Paxton), Democratic strategists believe 2026 offers their best chance in a generation—provided they can consolidate the 12% of voters who remain undecided.