By Trendsetter Tribune 
AUSTIN — As the early voting period for the March 3, 2026 primary enters its final days, a deepening sense of anxiety has taken hold of the Texas Republican establishment. New data released on Wednesday, February 25, 2026, shows that Democratic early voting turnout is outpacing Republican participation for the first time in a midterm cycle in over 30 years—a trend that some GOP strategists are calling a “political sea change.”
Through the first seven days of voting, 665,664 ballots were cast in the Democratic primary compared to 593,692 in the Republican primary. This surge is not just limited to urban centers; it is being felt in suburban “bellwether” counties where the GOP’s grip is traditionally strongest.
The “Rehmet Ripple Effect”
The primary alarm bell for Republicans was the January special election victory of Democrat Taylor Rehmet, who flipped a North Texas state senate seat by 14 points—a district that President Trump won by 17 points in 2024.
- Tarrant County Flip: Historically red Tarrant County has seen a 29-point swing toward Democrats compared to the 2024 primary.
- The “Red Wall” Cracks: Even in Montgomery County, the most populous Republican stronghold in the U.S., Democratic participation has surged by 30%, while Republican numbers have remained relatively flat.
- Suburban Drift: In Collin and Denton counties, traditionally deep-red suburbs, the gap between Republican and Democratic turnout has virtually vanished.
A Fractured GOP vs. A Fired-Up Democratic Base
Analysts suggest that while Democrats are unified by a high-profile Senate primary and opposition to federal policies, the Texas GOP is currently engaged in a “civil war” that may be suppressing its own turnout.
| Factor | Impact on Republican Turnout |
| Cornyn-Paxton Feud | The bitter U.S. Senate primary between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton has focused on personal attacks rather than base mobilization. |
| The “Apathy” Risk | Strategists warn that without the President on the ballot, “loyalist” voters are not showing up for the establishment GOP. |
| “Edgy” Opposition | The viral national profile of Rep. Jasmine Crockett is reportedly “terrifying” moderate suburbanites into taking the Democratic primary more seriously. |
Abbott’s $3.4 Million “Emergency” Buy
In a clear sign of the growing panic, Governor Greg Abbott has redirected $3.4 million into a new ad campaign that does not feature himself or his Republican rivals. Instead, the ads focus exclusively on Jasmine Crockett, framing her as the “leader of the radical left.”
“You vote for us Republicans, or you get this: AOC and Crockett. That is the choice.” — Dave Carney, Abbott Strategist, Feb 25, 2026
Carney admitted the ads are designed to “scare the base into showing up,” noting that if current turnout trends hold through Tuesday, the Republican party could face a “structural deficit” heading into the November general election.
Polling: A Margin of Error Race
Recent surveys from the University of Houston and the Texas Politics Project show that regardless of who wins the respective primaries, the general election for the U.S. Senate seat is currently a toss-up.
- Paxton (R) vs. Crockett (D): 45% to 43%
- Cornyn (R) vs. Talarico (D): 44% to 43%
- Hunt (R) vs. Crockett (D): 46% to 43%
“The era of double-digit Republican wins in Texas is over,” said Kendall Scudder, chair of the Texas Democratic Party. “Republicans are sounding the alarm because they finally realized the house is on fire.”