Harry Enten Stunned by Historic Democratic Surge in Texas Early Voting

NEW YORK / AUSTIN — CNN’s data guru Harry Enten admitted to being “completely stunned” on Wednesday, February 25, 2026, as early voting data from Texas revealed a massive and unexpected shift in the state’s political landscape. Enten, known for his “Magic Wall” analysis, highlighted that for the first time in recent history, Texas Democrats are not just keeping pace with Republicans—they are significantly outperforming them in early primary turnout.

The surge, which Enten described as “mind-blowing,” comes just six days before the March 3 primary and has rewritten the script for the 2026 midterm cycle.

The Numbers: A “Blue Wave” in the Making?

According to unofficial data from the Texas Secretary of State released through Monday, the participation gap between the two parties has flipped in a way that data analysts find unprecedented for a non-presidential year.

“Look at these numbers in Tarrant and Harris counties. These aren’t just marginal gains; we are seeing Democratic primary turnout double what it was in the last two election cycles. In Texas, that is simply unheard of.” — Harry Enten, CNN, Feb 25, 2026

What’s Driving the Surge?

Enten identified three primary “combustion points” that have ignited the Democratic base in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994.

1. The “Talarico vs. Crockett” Battle: The high-stakes U.S. Senate primary between Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico has absorbed millions in ad spending. Talarico’s recent $2.5 million fundraising surge following a viral Colbert interview has brought national attention—and national donors—to the race.+1
2. The “Rehmet Effect”: Democrat Taylor Rehmet’s 14-point upset victory in a deep-red Texas State Senate seat earlier this month served as a proof-of-concept for the “Blue Texas” dream, motivating previously disengaged voters.
3. Backlash to Federal Policy: Analysts note that aggressive federal immigration enforcement and the recent move to dismantle the Department of Education have created a “high-pressure front” that is driving Democrats to the polls in record numbers to register their dissent.

The Republican “Energy Gap”

While Republican turnout is technically higher than in the 2022 midterms, it is lagging significantly behind the Democratic surge, particularly in the suburbs of Dallas, Houston, and Austin.

• The Paxton-Cornyn Friction: The bruising Republican Senate primary between Ken Paxton and John Cornyn appears to be “cannibalizing” the base rather than expanding it. Enten noted that many moderate Republicans in Collin and Denton counties seem to be sitting out the primary entirely.
• The “Complacency” Risk: GOP strategist Dave Carney dismissed the Democratic surge as “millions of dollars chasing a primary that won’t matter in November,” but Enten warned that “apathy is a choice that usually favors the challenger.”

“It’s No Longer a Myth”

Enten concluded his segment by cautioning that while primary turnout doesn’t always predict general election results, the 12-point swing in certain battleground counties suggests that Texas is no longer just a “red state with blue cities,” but a genuinely competitive battlefield for 2026.