By Trendsetter Tribune 
Israeli and Iranian officials exchanged rare assurances via Russia in late December, agreeing not to strike first as regional tensions rose and protests erupted inside Iran, according to diplomats and regional officials.
As mass protests erupted across Iran in late December, a little-known diplomatic channel was already in motion behind the scenes. Days before demonstrations challenged Tehran’s grip on power, Israeli officials quietly conveyed a message to Iran through Russia: Israel would not launch strikes against Iran unless it was attacked first. Iran, responding through the same channel, offered a reciprocal assurance.
The unusual exchange sheds light on how regional powers sought to contain escalation at a volatile moment, even as public rhetoric and military preparations suggested the Middle East was inching closer to a wider conflict.
Background: Hostility, War, and Rising Regional Risk
Israel and Iran are longtime adversaries whose rivalry has increasingly spilled into direct confrontation. In June, the two sides fought a 12-day war, marking one of the most serious escalations between them in decades. Since then, tensions have remained high, fueled by Iran’s ballistic missile program, Israel’s security concerns, and Tehran’s backing of armed groups across the region, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon.
By late December, Israel was preparing for a potentially major military campaign against Hezbollah, an Iran-aligned militia that Israel considers its most immediate security threat. At the same time, Iran was entering a period of domestic instability as protests spread nationwide.
What Was Communicated Through Russia
According to diplomats and regional officials familiar with the exchange, Israel used Russia as an intermediary to relay assurances to Iran’s leadership that it would not initiate attacks against Iran, provided Israel itself was not attacked first.
Iran responded positively through the Russian channel, agreeing it would also refrain from launching a preemptive strike.
The use of Russia as a go-between was notable given Moscow’s complex relationships with both countries and its broader efforts to position itself as a diplomatic broker on the global stage. Officials said the messages were exchanged shortly after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Moscow in late December.
Israel’s Strategic Calculations
Privately, Israeli officials sought to avoid being seen as escalating tensions with Iran at a moment when Israel’s military focus was shifting toward Hezbollah. According to officials, the goal was to keep Iran on the sidelines and prevent a two-front conflict if fighting erupted in Lebanon.
These private reassurances contrasted sharply with Israel’s public rhetoric late last year, when senior officials openly hinted at renewed strikes on Iran to curb what they described as Tehran’s rapidly rebuilding missile arsenal.
For Israel, isolating Hezbollah from direct Iranian involvement remains a central strategic objective. An Israeli official said that logic continues to guide policy, even as regional conditions evolve.
Iran’s Caution and Distrust
While Iranian officials welcomed the Israeli message, they remained wary of Israel’s intentions. According to officials familiar with Tehran’s thinking, Iran feared that even if Israel honored its assurances, the United States could still carry out strikes against Iranian targets in coordination with its ally.
From Tehran’s perspective, staying out of an Israel-Hezbollah clash was seen as advantageous, particularly as Iran grapples with internal unrest and diminished capacity to support allies abroad. U.S. officials have said Iran’s substantive backing of Hezbollah has already declined due to domestic pressures.
The Impact of Iran’s Protests
The eruption of large-scale protests inside Iran has complicated calculations on all sides. Analysts say the unrest raises questions about whether the informal Israel-Iran understanding will hold if the situation deteriorates further.
President Donald Trump has been weighing possible strikes against Iranian regime targets in response to the crackdown on protesters. Any U.S. action, experts warn, could prompt Iranian retaliation that might draw Israel into the conflict regardless of prior assurances.
A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran would retaliate against U.S. military bases in the Middle East if attacked, notably without naming Israel among the targets.
Uncertainty Over Future Escalation
It remains unclear whether Israel would adhere to its December reassurances if an opportunity arose to significantly weaken or destabilize the Iranian government. Israel has previously demonstrated a willingness to act decisively, including launching a surprise attack on Iran in June while U.S.-Iran nuclear talks were underway.
Israeli officials have recently described their military posture as defensive, avoiding overtly aggressive language even as preparations continue.
“Israel is giving the U.S. the leading role [in any potential strikes against Iran], but there is no question Israel would love to see regime change,” said Sima Shine, a senior researcher at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies and a former Mossad official. She added that Israel has taken extensive steps to prepare for possible retaliation.
Hezbollah Still Central to Israel’s Plans
Despite the uncertainty surrounding Iran, Israeli officials have made clear that a military campaign against Hezbollah remains on the table.
“The [Lebanon] campaign will take place, and Hezbollah will be heavily targeted,” one Israeli official said. “The question is if it’s during or after the Iran war.”
Israel has repeatedly warned that Hezbollah continues to pose a major threat due to its refusal to disarm and its expanding military capabilities along Israel’s northern border.
Russia’s Role as Intermediary
Russia’s involvement reflects its broader efforts to maintain influence in Middle Eastern diplomacy while also seeking leverage with Washington. Moscow has previously floated the idea of mediating between Israel and Iran directly with Trump, an offer the U.S. president reportedly declined, urging Russia to focus instead on resolving the war in Ukraine.
It remains unclear whether Washington was aware of or involved in the late-December message exchange.
Israel’s public broadcaster KAN reported last week that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to convey messages to Iran that Israel did not intend to attack it.
Conclusion
The secret Israel-Iran communications reveal a quieter layer of diplomacy operating beneath the surface of public threats and military maneuvering. While both sides sought to avoid immediate escalation late last year, Iran’s internal unrest, U.S. deliberations over potential strikes, and Israel’s unresolved confrontation with Hezbollah have left the region on a knife’s edge.
Whether the informal understandings brokered through Russia can survive these pressures remains uncertain—but their existence highlights how even bitter rivals sometimes rely on back channels to prevent a wider war.