Jasmine Crockett Opens Double-Digit Lead in Texas Senate Primary

AUSTIN, TX — With early voting already underway, a new blockbuster poll from the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project shows U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett holding a commanding double-digit lead in the race to become the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate. The survey, released on Wednesday, February 25, 2026, shows Crockett at 56% compared to 44% for State Rep. James Talarico, marking a significant shift in the race’s final days.

The poll suggests that Crockett’s “firebrand” progressive style is consolidating the Democratic base, even as Talarico gains national attention through viral media moments.

The Polling Shift: Crockett Pulls Away

The primary has seen a volatile polling trajectory over the last two months, but Crockett appears to have captured the momentum as the March 3 primary approaches.

• The Demographic Engine: Crockett’s surge is powered by an “impenetrable” firewall of support among Black voters (87%) and a narrow lead among Hispanic voters, who were previously leaning toward Talarico.
• The Talarico Surge: Despite trailing, Talarico’s campaign reported a massive $2.5 million fundraising haul last week following a viral moment involving a “pulled” interview on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert.

Style vs. Substance: The Campaign Contrast

The primary has evolved into a “contrast of styles” that has national Democrats watching closely as they look for a candidate who can finally flip Texas in November.

• Jasmine Crockett: The Dallas Congresswoman has leaned into her national reputation for “publicly castigating” Republicans. She has framed her campaign as a “battle-tested” effort to directly challenge the Trump administration and Attorney General Ken Paxton.
• James Talarico: The Austin-based state representative has focused on a “moral” appeal, often quoting scripture and targeting moderate and faith-based voters. His supporters argue he is the more “electable” candidate for a general election in a deep-red state.

A Record-Breaking Early Vote

The intensity of the Crockett-Talarico rivalry, combined with a high-stakes Republican primary between Sen. John Cornyn and Ken Paxton, has driven historic turnout.

• The Numbers: In the first seven days of early voting, more than 1.2 million Texans have already cast their ballots.
• Democratic Enthusiasm: For the first time in a non-presidential year, Democratic early vote numbers are outpacing Republicans in several major urban centers, including Harris and Tarrant counties.

The “Allred” Factor

The race took a personal turn earlier this month following a scandal involving a liberal content creator’s claims about private conversations with Talarico.

“If you want to compliment Black women, just do it. Don’t do it while also tearing down a Black man.” — Former Rep. Colin Allred, endorsing Crockett on Feb 20, 2026.

Allred’s endorsement, sparked by allegations that Talarico disparaged his 2024 campaign style, provided Crockett with a significant boost in the “establishment” wing of the party just as voting began.

What’s Next?

With only six days until the polls close on March 3:

1. Final Rallies: Crockett is scheduled for a “Get Out the Vote” blitz in Houston, while Talarico is focusing on the “I-35 corridor” from San Antonio to Denton.
2. The Runoff Question: If neither candidate manages to keep their lead above 50% (though the current UT poll suggests Crockett is there), the race would head to a May 26 runoff.