Karl Rove Warns of 2026 Midterm Risks for GOP

Veteran Republican strategist Karl Rove is sounding the alarm for the GOP, cautioning that the party’s Senate majority is far from secure heading into the November 2026 midterms. Speaking on Fox News, Rove emphasized that “over-promising and under-delivering” on economic issues could hand control of the upper chamber back to Democrats.

The “Paxton Problem” in Texas

Rove specifically highlighted the Texas Republican Primary as a potential liability. While Texas is typically a reliable “ruby red” state, Rove warned that Attorney General Ken Paxton’s legal and personal controversies could jeopardize what should be an easy hold for the party.

• Primary Polling: A new University of Houston poll (Jan 20–31) confirms Rove’s concerns, showing Paxton leading the incumbent, Senator John Cornyn, by 7 points (38% to 31%).
• The Messy Middle: Representative Wesley Hunt (17%) is currently acting as a spoiler, making a May runoff between Paxton and Cornyn almost certain.
• General Election Vulnerability: Rove suggested that while Cornyn is a safe bet, Paxton—whom he described as having “all kinds of problems”—could create a “real mess” in a general election against a energized Democratic opponent like Jasmine Crockett.

Battleground Alerts: Maine and North Carolina

Rove identified two other states where the GOP faces uphill battles due to unique candidate dynamics and shifting voter behavior.

• Maine (Susan Collins): Rove called the re-election of Sen. Susan Collins “critical,” noting the rare crossover appeal she needed in 2020. He pointed out that one in five Maine voters split their tickets last time—a trend that is increasingly difficult to replicate in a polarized environment.
• North Carolina (Open Seat): With Thom Tillis retiring, the race for this open seat is a top Democratic target. Former Governor Roy Cooper (D) is currently leading Republican Michael Whatley in early polling.+1
  • Latest Polls: Recent data from Emerson College and TIPP Insights shows Cooper with a steady lead, ranging from 6 to 24 points, largely due to his high name recognition compared to Whatley.

The Economic Messaging Gap

Rove’s core advice to the GOP is to stop relying solely on the White House for economic messaging. He argued that candidates must develop their own concerted, localized “attitude” regarding the economy to win over swing voters.