By Trendsetter Tribune 
Prominent conservative commentator Erick Erickson has issued a stark warning to the Texas Republican Party, characterizing the primary challenge by Attorney General Ken Paxton against incumbent Senator John Cornyn as a potential act of “electoral suicide.”
In his Substack published Monday, February 16, 2026, Erickson argued that nominating Paxton—whose career has been defined by high-profile legal battles and personal scandals—could jeopardize not only the Texas seat but also the GOP’s ability to defend vulnerable seats nationwide.
The “MAGA” vs. “Establishment” Split
The 2026 Texas Senate primary has become the definitive battleground for the soul of the Republican Party.
- The Paxton Surge: Despite (or perhaps because of) his controversial history—including a 2023 impeachment and ongoing federal scrutiny—Paxton has successfully branded himself as a “warrior” against the establishment. A University of Houston poll released on February 9 shows Paxton leading Cornyn 38% to 31%, with Congressman Wesley Hunt trailing at 17%.
- Erickson’s Critique: Erickson didn’t mince words, describing Paxton as a “serial adulterer” who only escaped federal prosecution because of his loyalty to the President. He warned that Paxton’s supporters “cannot be reasoned with” and are willing to risk a Democratic victory just to oust Cornyn.
The Financial Drain Theory
Erickson’s primary concern is the allocation of resources. He argues that while a traditional incumbent like Cornyn would be a safe bet, Paxton would require an unprecedented infusion of cash to survive a general election. This “diversion of critical money” could leave other Republicans exposed in key 2026 battlegrounds:
- Georgia: Where Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) is currently out-fundraising all GOP challengers.
- Maine: Where Sen. Susan Collins (R) faces a formidable challenge from Gov. Janet Mills.
- Michigan: Where Republicans are fighting for an open seat against a “messy” but energized Democratic field.
- North Carolina: Where former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is currently leading RNC Chair Michael Whatley in early polling.
Comparison: 2026 Texas Senate Contenders
| Candidate | Primary Support (Feb ’26) | General Election Outlook |
| Ken Paxton (R) | 38% | Toss-up. Tied with Talarico/Crockett in early polls. |
| John Cornyn (R) | 31% | Leans Rep. Outperforms Paxton in hypothetical matchups. |
| Jasmine Crockett (D) | 47% | Competitive. Leading Democratic field with strong base energy. |
| James Talarico (D) | 39% | Competitive. Appeals to moderate/independent voters. |