By Trendsetter Tribune 
In the heart of Allentown’s Lehigh Valley, the story of “Monchy’s” (8th Street Food Market) is becoming a microcosm of a larger national trend. As the 2026 midterms approach, the economic and immigration policies of the second Trump administration are driving a wedge between the President and the Hispanic voters who helped put him back in office.
The “Economic Promise” vs. Reality
For Mariela and Ramon Evangelista, the decision to vote for Trump in 2024 was rooted in a desire for a stronger economy. However, the reality of the past year has been a 30% drop in business.
- The “Fear Factor”: Customers are reportedly staying home or have been deported, hollowed out by what Mariela describes as “violence in the street”—scenes of masked agents that she says go far beyond the targeted criminal deportations she expected.
- National Sentiment: New polling from UnidosUS and Pew Research (late 2025) indicates that 70% of Latinos now disapprove of Trump’s job performance, with 61% stating his economic policies have made conditions worse for them.
Midterm Stakes: Pennsylvania as “Ground Zero”
The shift in sentiment is particularly critical in Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District, which includes Allentown. This seat is currently held by Republican Ryan Mackenzie, who flipped it in 2024 by a razor-thin margin of just 4,000 votes.
| Key Metric | 2024 Result (PA-7) | 2026 Outlook |
| Incumbent | Ryan Mackenzie (R) | Toss-Up |
| Margin of Victory | 50.5% (Approx. 4,000 votes) | Highly Vulnerable |
| Top Voter Concerns | Economy & Affordability | Immigration Safety & Inflation |
A Looming “Blue Wave”?
Recent generic congressional ballot polls show a significant swing:
- November 2025: Marist found Democrats with a 14-point lead nationally for 2026.
- January 2026: Emerson College Polling shows a 6-point advantage for Democrats (48% to 42%).
- The “One in Five” Rule: Perhaps most damaging for the GOP is data showing that one in five Hispanic Trump voters now say they would not vote for him again, primarily citing the “extreme” nature of mass deportations and the use of military forces in domestic enforcement.
As the May 19 primary approaches in Pennsylvania, the “Monchy’s” effect suggests that the Hispanic vote—once a bright spot for the Trump coalition—may be the very thing that costs the GOP control of the House.