Shifts in the Southwest: Robson Exits Arizona’s 2026 Gubernatorial Race

The departure of Karrin Taylor Robson from the Arizona gubernatorial primary yesterday (Thursday, February 12, 2026) has fundamentally reshaped the race to challenge incumbent Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs.

Robson’s exit is seen as a significant win for the MAGA wing of the party, as it leaves U.S. Representative Andy Biggs—a staunch Trump ally and former Freedom Caucus chair—as the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination.

The Endorsement Factor

While the New York Times report notes Trump’s shift toward Biggs, the timeline of the 2026 race was particularly complex:

• Dual Endorsements: Early in the cycle, Trump actually issued a dual endorsement of both Robson and Biggs.
• Establishment vs. MAGA: Despite having the Trump seal of approval this time around, Robson struggled to overcome her 2022 reputation as an establishment moderate.
• Turning Point Influence: Groups like Turning Point USA heavily favored Biggs, arguing that Robson’s “Arizona First” pivot was insincere compared to Biggs’ long-standing hardline record.

The Remaining Field

With Robson out, the Republican primary has narrowed to two primary contenders:

1. Rep. Andy Biggs: Now the presumptive favorite, Biggs carries the full weight of the MAGA movement and high name recognition among primary voters.
2. Rep. David Schweikert: Positioned as the more pragmatic alternative, Schweikert entered the race specifically to prevent what he calls a “Kari Lake-style collapse” in the general election, fearing Biggs is too far right for Arizona’s moderate-leaning swing voters.

Looking Toward November

The “warning sign” Republicans fret over is the state’s recent voting history. Since 2018, Arizona has trended away from the GOP in statewide races, electing Democrats to the Governor’s office, the Attorney General’s office, and both U.S. Senate seats.

Early polling from late 2025 suggested a razor-thin general election:

• Hobbs vs. Biggs: Roughly 44% to 43%, effectively a toss-up.
• The Independent Factor: With Robson’s exit, many moderate Republicans and Independent voters may now look toward third-party candidates or Schweikert to avoid a repeat of the 2022 dynamics.