The Lone Star Showdown: Primary Battles Ignite in Texas

As Texas prepares for its March 3, 2026 primary, the state is no longer being treated as a Republican certainty. A shifting national mood and a recent “political earthquake”—a 14-point upset victory by Democrat Taylor Rehmet in a historically red Fort Worth-area State Senate seat—have emboldened Democrats and sent a “wake-up call” to the GOP.

With one U.S. Senate seat on the ballot, both parties are facing internal fractures that could determine the balance of power in Washington for the remainder of the decade.

The Democratic Primary: A Contrast in Styles

The race to decide who will challenge the Republican nominee has evolved into a head-vs-heart choice between two rising stars. While they share progressive policy goals, their methods of political combat are worlds apart.

• Recent Turmoil: The race turned sharp last week when former candidate Colin Allred accused Talarico of using the phrase “mediocre Black man” to describe him. Talarico denied the racial context, claiming he was referring to Allred’s campaigning style, but Crockett has used the moment to highlight “behind closed doors” attitudes.
• Voter Demographics: Polling shows a stark racial divide: Crockett holds roughly 80% of the Black vote, while Talarico maintains strong leads among white and Latino voters.

The Republican Primary: The Incumbent vs. The Agitator

The GOP contest is arguably the nastiest in the country, as incumbent John Cornyn fights to survive a challenge from Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is leveraging a “more-conservative-than-thou” platform.

• Poll Standings: The latest University of Houston poll shows Ken Paxton leading with 38% to John Cornyn’s 31%.
• The “Spoiler” Factor: Rep. Wesley Hunt sits in third with 17%. His presence makes a May runoff virtually certain, as no candidate currently approaches the 50% threshold.
• Trump’s Shadow: While 89% of GOP primary voters view President Trump favorably, he has yet to issue an official endorsement. Paxton’s campaign argues Cornyn has “betrayed” the America First movement, while Cornyn’s allies have spent over $50 million on ads highlighting Paxton’s corruption scandals and recent divorce.

General Election Outlook

Hypothetical general election matchups suggest that despite the internal mudslinging, the November race is currently a statistical toss-up.

• Paxton vs. Democrats: Paxton leads both Crockett and Talarico by just 2 points (45%–43% and 46%–44% respectively).
• Cornyn vs. Democrats: Cornyn leads Crockett by 2 points and Talarico by a mere 1 point (44%–43%).

Democrats are quietly rooting for a Paxton victory in the primary, betting that his legal baggage will alienate suburban swing voters. Conversely, Republicans fear that Paxton at the top of the ticket could act as an “anchor,” costing the party several newly created congressional seats.