The “Retirement Caucus”: GOP Departures Hit Historic Levels

The 2026 midterm cycle is witnessing a major exodus from Capitol Hill, as a record number of lawmakers—particularly Republicans—announce they will not seek reelection. According to recent editorial analysis by Juan Williams and updated tracking data, the “retirement caucus” is on pace to be one of the largest this century, fueled by internal party friction, a difficult polling environment for the administration, and the fallout from controversial policy battles.

As of mid-February 2026, the sheer volume of departures is reshaping the political landscape ahead of the November midterms.

The Numbers: A Record-Breaking Exodus

Total departures from Congress have reached levels not seen in decades. While lawmakers cite reasons ranging from “dysfunction” to a desire to spend time with family, the partisan skew toward Republican retirements is notable.

• House of Representatives: Approximately 51 members have announced they are leaving their seats. This includes 30 Republicans and 21 Democrats.
• Senate: 12 senators are not seeking reelection (or have already resigned/retired), including high-profile figures like Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Thom Tillis (R-NC), and Cynthia Lummis (R-WY).
• Historical Context: With 63 total departures (36 of them Republicans) across both chambers by early 2026, Congress is on track to surpass the departure rates of previous “wave” election years like 2018 and 1992.

Analysis of the “Trump Factor”

Republican analyst Juan Williams argues that these retirements represent a “flight to safety” by lawmakers who are weary of the political cost of the administration’s current agenda.

• Public Approval Concerns: Recent polling from various outlets, including Fox and YouGov, shows significant headwinds for the GOP. Disapproval for the administration’s handling of inflation and tariffs ranges from 58% to 64%, while the President’s net job approval has hovered between -14 and -18 points.
• The “Retribution” Cycle: Following the February 11 House vote where six Republicans broke ranks to overturn Canadian tariffs, the President’s social media threats against dissenters have reportedly accelerated retirement decisions for moderate members who do not wish to face a primary from the right.
• The Marjorie Taylor Greene Resignation: The departure of the prominent Georgia representative earlier this year—following her public clashes with the administration over campaign spending and personal attacks—served as a “warning sign” to other House Republicans about the risks of staying in Washington.

Key Retirements to Watch