Turning Point Action Backs Paxton in High-Stakes Texas Senate Battle

In a move that significantly heightens the stakes for the Texas GOP, Turning Point Action officially endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton on Monday, February 9, 2026. The endorsement pits the influential grassroots organization against the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), which has backed incumbent Senator John Cornyn.

The State of the Race

A new University of Houston poll released alongside the endorsement shows Paxton pulling ahead in the three-way primary.

• Paxton Leads: Among likely Republican primary voters, 38% support Paxton, while 31% support Cornyn.
• The Hunt Factor: Representative Wesley Hunt sits in third place with 17%, while 12% remain undecided.
• Runoff Likely: No candidate is currently near the 50% threshold required to avoid a runoff. In a hypothetical May head-to-head, the poll found Paxton leading Cornyn 51% to 40%.

Strategy: The “Trump” Influence

The endorsement from Turning Point Action—founded by the late Charlie Kirk—is a major victory for Paxton’s “America First” branding.

• Cornyn’s Pivot: Despite past criticisms of the President, Senator Cornyn has recently aligned himself closely with President Trump, even featuring the President in campaign ads and sharing photos of himself reading The Art of the Deal.
• Paxton’s Loyalty: Paxton, a longtime Trump ally, has framed his campaign as an anti-establishment effort to purge “RINO” Republicans.
• The Trump X-Factor: While the President has not yet formally endorsed a candidate, 55% of Texas GOP primary voters say a Trump endorsement would be the deciding factor in their vote.

General Election Vulnerability?

The “nasty” nature of the primary has sparked fears among national Republicans that a Paxton victory could put the seat in play for Democrats.

Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) currently leads the Democratic primary with 47% support over state Rep. James Talarico (39%). Republicans warn that a Paxton nomination would require at least $200 million in defensive spending to hold the seat, potentially draining resources from battlegrounds like Georgia and Michigan.