By Trendsetter Tribune 
With the June 2, 2026, primary quickly approaching, California’s “top-two” election system has created a high-stakes scenario for Democrats. Despite being a deep-blue state, recent polling suggests that a fractured Democratic field could allow two Republicans to advance to the general election, shut out the Democratic party entirely for the first time in modern history.
The Polling Breakdown
A March 2026 poll from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) shows Republican candidates currently holding the top two spots due to consolidated party support:
- Steve Hilton (R): 17% (Former Fox News commentator)
- Chad Bianco (R): 16% (Riverside County Sheriff)
- Eric Swalwell (D): 13% (U.S. Representative)
- Katie Porter (D): 13% (Former U.S. Representative)
- Tom Steyer (D): 10% (Billionaire businessman)
Why the “Lockout” is Possible
California uses a nonpartisan blanket primary where all candidates appear on one ballot, and only the top two finishers—regardless of party—move on to November.
- Democratic Fragmentation: While roughly 60% of Californians typically vote Democratic, that vote is currently split between eight major candidates, including Swalwell, Porter, Steyer, Xavier Becerra, and Antonio Villaraigosa.
- Republican Consolidation: GOP voters have largely coalesced around Hilton and Bianco. If the Democratic field remains this crowded, Hilton and Bianco could both slide into the top two with as little as 15-18% of the vote each.
The Strategy and the Struggle
Democratic leaders are sounding the alarm. State Party Chair Rusty Hicks recently urged “non-viable” candidates to drop out by April 15 to prevent a disaster. However, the call to “clear the field” has met significant pushback:
- Diversity Concerns: Critics argue that asking candidates like Xavier Becerra or Antonio Villaraigosa to step aside unfairly targets leaders of color in favor of candidates with higher personal wealth or established media profiles.
- The “Trump” Factor: Katie Porter has explicitly warned that the risk is “terrifying,” suggesting a Republican governor would cooperate with the current federal administration’s policies on immigration and healthcare rather than acting as a “California firewall.”
Key Issues Defining the Race
Voters remain largely disengaged, with many citing the cost of living (33%) and the state budget deficit as their primary concerns. While Democrats focus on healthcare access and climate change, Hilton and Bianco are leaning heavily into public safety and parental rights in education.
The next few weeks are critical. If no major Democratic candidate can break away from the pack by the April 15 “unofficial” deadline to consolidate, the state could face a November ballot with two Republicans and no Democrat for the highest office in the state.