As the 2026 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) unfolds in Grapevine, Texas, the atmosphere is far from the jubilant “coronation” seen a year ago. For the first time in a decade, President Trump is skipping the event, a move that comes as his approval ratings have dipped to a second-term low of 36% amid a month-long military conflict with Iran and a stalling domestic economy.
While the “red-hatted” base remains largely loyal, a growing “anti-war” faction within the MAGA movement is beginning to voice rare and public frustration, with some activists and influencers suggesting the President has betrayed his core “No New Wars” campaign promise.
The “Shattered” Coalition
The primary driver of the friction is the February 28, 2026 escalation of airstrikes in Iran. This has created a stark divide between “Old Guard” conservatives and a younger, populist wing:
- The Critics: Influential voices like Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene have led the charge against the conflict, labeling it an “Israel First” endeavor that drains American resources. At CPAC, younger attendees—including 19-year-old Razi Marshall—expressed disillusionment, stating, “He ran on making stuff more affordable… stuff’s less affordable. I’m less than pleased.”
- The Supporters: Traditional hawks and evangelical leaders, including Rev. Franklin Graham, have doubled down on their support. Graham told the CPAC crowd that Trump’s actions were a “biblical necessity” to protect Israel from nuclear annihilation.
- The “Wait-and-See” Middle: Even allies like Matt Gaetz have signaled caution, warning from the stage that a ground invasion would make the U.S. “poorer and less safe.”
Grievances Beyond the War
The “Can’t stand the guy” sentiment, while still a minority view within the conference, is also being fueled by unresolved domestic issues:
- The Epstein Files: Many “America First” die-hards are “pissed” over the President’s perceived stonewalling on the full release of the Jeffrey Epstein documents, leading to conspiracy theories that the administration is protecting elites.
- Economic Anxiety: With inflation rising and the stock market reacting poorly to the Strait of Hormuz crisis, the “Golden Age” Trump promised in 2024 is feeling, to some, like a “political winter.”
- The DHS Shutdown: The record 42-day partial government shutdown has added to a sense of “administrative chaos” that even some loyalists find exhausting.
CPAC or “TPAC”?
Despite the rifts, the conference organizers, led by Matt Schlapp, have worked to keep the event a pro-Trump fortress. None of the President’s most vocal conservative critics were given speaking slots, leading some detractors to mockingly rename the event “TPAC” (Trump Political Action Conference).
However, the “pall” over the movement is undeniable. As podcaster Tim Pool recently noted, “The MAGA coalition is shattered,” referring to the infighting between pro-interventionists and isolationists that has turned social media into a conservative “civil war.”
